Portfolio Intelligence Computation

Portfolio intelligence computation

The intelligence computation answers:

Which current operational conditions should an operator review now or soon, and which candidate signals should be suppressed?

It consumes the versioned runtime-health result, compiled Campaign intelligence contracts, an optional previous result, and optional fingerprint-bound feedback. It emits advisory Decisions and suppressions. It does not admit Work, dispatch workers, or grant authority.

The current measure contract is:

{
  "measureId": "portfolio-decisions",
  "measureVersion": "1.2.0"
}

Run it

gh cao download
gh cao computation intelligence

Evaluate one Campaign:

gh cao computation intelligence --campaign dependabot

Replay a prior result and apply operator feedback:

gh cao computation intelligence \
  --previous prior-intelligence.json \
  --feedback decision-feedback.json

Use --database FILE and --inventory FILE together to evaluate another canonical snapshot.

Candidate formation

The computation applies these deterministic stages:

1. Convert each runtime-health error group into a stable signal.
2. Suppress signals for observed-extra targets.
3. Suppress signals while recoveryMayBeInProgress is true.
4. Correlate remaining signals by exact Campaign identity and runtime error key.
5. Produce one Decision for each correlation group.
6. Apply feedback only when both the Decision ID and input fingerprint match.
7. Order Decisions by state priority and stable Decision ID.

Correlation does not use timestamps, physical ledger order, Git merge order, or runtime scheduling as a tie-breaker.

Decision state

The initial protect measure uses observed recurrence:

• act-now when the correlation group contains at least three observed failures;
• decide-soon when it contains fewer than three.

The threshold is recorded in sensitivity and the decisionTrace. This is not a probability or a claim about expected benefit.

Every current recommendation is:

{
  "operation": "investigate-runtime-failure",
  "mode": "review",
  "dispatchable": false
}

The Decision includes alternatives to defer, do nothing, or obtain additional evidence. Its execution-authority hard gate is not-evaluated with dispatch-prohibited.

Identity and replay

decisionId identifies the semantic condition: the Campaign, Decision class, operation, and correlated runtime error key. It remains stable when the underlying evidence changes.

inputFingerprint identifies the exact measure version, threshold, Campaign contract, and signal fingerprints used for one evaluation. It changes when relevant evidence or configuration changes.

Passing an unchanged result through --previous reuses the same logical Decisions. An incompatible measure version or malformed previous result is rejected rather than silently reused.

Campaign contracts and quality

Each Decision references the compiled Campaign intelligence contract used for that evaluation. The fingerprint therefore changes when declared Campaign semantics change.

Campaign-authored semantics arrive through the normalized intelligenceDeclaration on the canonical Campaign record. The compiled contract exposes the declaration version and Campaign identity separately from the 17 semantic fields. See Intelligence for the authoring and installation format.

Decision quality combines:

• runtime-health availability and provenance;
• Campaign-contract completeness and maturity;
• signal coverage;
• target attribution coverage; and
• contradiction state.

A partial Campaign contract produces a partial Decision even when runtime failure evidence is available. This is intentional: CAO can report a recurring failure without pretending it knows the Campaign’s outcome, expected value, schedule rationale, or attention cost.

Suppressions

The computation currently emits three suppression rules:

Rule	Meaning
outside-declared-target-scope	Evidence belongs to a Repository that is not explicitly enrolled.
recovery-in-progress	A newer active Run may already be recovering the condition.
unchanged-terminal-result	Terminal feedback already resolved the exact Decision fingerprint.

Suppressions retain the subject, signal fingerprint, reconsideration condition, and related Decision ID when applicable. They are historical explanations, not deleted evidence.

Feedback

Feedback uses a versioned envelope:

{
  "contractVersion": "1.0.0",
  "records": [{
    "decisionId": "runtime-health-decision:...",
    "inputFingerprint": "sha256:...",
    "disposition": "deferred",
    "observedAt": "2026-10-01T11:00:00Z",
    "actor": "operator:octocat",
    "authority": "control-repository-review"
  }]
}

Allowed dispositions are:

Disposition	Effect for matching evidence
accepted	Terminal; suppress the unchanged Decision.
rejected	Terminal; suppress the unchanged Decision.
superseded	Terminal; suppress the unchanged Decision.
recovered	Terminal; suppress the unchanged Decision.
expired	Terminal; suppress the unchanged Decision.
deferred	Nonterminal; attach feedback and retain the Decision.
unresolved	Nonterminal; attach feedback and retain the Decision.

Feedback for the same Decision ID but an older input fingerprint is reported as stale and cannot suppress changed evidence. Feedback for an absent Decision ID is reported as unmatched. The complete bounded feedback envelope remains in the result for inspection.

accepted records a recommendation disposition only. It is not accepted outcome evidence or operational-value attainment.

Result shape

The result contains:

{
  "measureId": "portfolio-decisions",
  "measureVersion": "1.2.0",
  "inputFingerprint": "sha256:...",
  "evidenceQuality": {},
  "evaluatedDecisionClasses": ["protect"],
  "agentInvocations": 0,
  "campaignContracts": [],
  "feedback": {},
  "signalCount": 0,
  "correlatedCandidateCount": 0,
  "decisionCount": 0,
  "suppressionCount": 0,
  "reusedDecisionIds": [],
  "decisions": [],
  "suppressions": [],
  "asOf": null
}

Each Decision includes:

• recommendation, alternatives, and consequences;
• hard gates and capacity requirements;
• normalized quality and evidence references;
• Campaign-contract identity and fingerprint;
• applicable feedback;
• correlation and sensitivity information; and
• a trace of inputs, measure versions, rules, assumptions, thresholds, gates, constraints, and tie-breakers.

Evidence references are bounded to 50 canonical Run IDs.

Interpretation limits

The current computation evaluates only the protect Decision class over runtime-health evidence. It does not yet:

• forecast AI Credit or human-attention demand;
• evaluate schedule fitness or Campaign overlap;
• compare operational value across Campaigns;
• select a portfolio under explicit capacity constraints;
• evaluate execution authority; or
• dispatch a selected worker.

Those capabilities require additional declared Campaign facts and independently versioned measures. See the intelligence overview for the planned sequence.